NALCO’s domestic ingot price doesn’t move in isolation – it largely tracks the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price, since NALCO, like most Indian primary producers, benchmarks its domestic rate against global cash prices with a lag of a few days to weeks. When LME aluminium rallies on supply tightness or strong global demand, NALCO’s next price circular usually reflects that move.

The second big lever is the rupee-dollar exchange rate. Since aluminium is priced in USD internationally, a weaker rupee pushes up the landed cost of imported alumina/inputs and raises the INR-equivalent of LME prices – even if the dollar price itself hasn’t moved much. This is part of why domestic ingot rates can rise even during periods of relatively calm global pricing.

Finally, seasonal and sector demand plays a role on the ground. Construction and infrastructure activity typically picks up post-monsoon (Oct–Mar), and automotive/EV component demand adds steady pressure through the year. Together, these three factors – LME movement, currency, and domestic demand cycles – explain most of the month-to-month swings you see in the table above, including the sharper jumps and occasional flat/negative months.